Background

Since the return of electoral politics to Jordan in 1989, the Kingdom has held four parliamentary elections, in 1989, 1993, 1997 and 2003.

The 1989 elections were held according to a multiple voting system in which voters were allowed to cast a number of votes matching the number of representatives for their respective (multi-member) parliamentary district. Under this system, for example, the citizens of a district which had nine seats in parliament were allowed to cast votes for nine representatives. Islamist candidates won 22 out of 80 parliamentary seats in these elections.

For the 1993 parliamentary elections, the law was changed to a ‘one-person one-vote system’, i.e. a single non-transferable vote system in multiple member districts which allowed voters to choose only one candidate on the ballot. In these elections the Islamic Action Front (IAF) won seventeen seats. In response to this lower than anticipated showing, the IAF and other opposition parties boycotted the 1997 elections in protest of the new electoral system.

The 2003 elections were held according to a Temporary Law on Elections which continued to stipulate a ‘one-person one-vote’ system, but added a six-seat quota for women and raised the total number of seats in parliament from 80 to 110. The IAF decided to participate in these elections and won 17 seats, the largest number of seats held by a party in parliament. Aside from the quota seats, no woman won in a head-to-head race for a parliamentary seat.

Parliamentary elections are currently scheduled for November 20, 2007. The government has announced that they will be held according to the 2003 Temporary Election Law.

This is the fifth national poll in a series of public opinion surveys conducted by the Jordan Center for Social Research and its partners on democratic transformation and political reform in Jordan.

JCSR and its partners conducted National Poll #1 in July 2005, National Poll #2 in December 2005, National Poll #3 in May 2006, and National Poll #4 in March 2007. Jordan’s first ever exit poll was conducted by JCSR and its partners during the July 31, 2007 municipal elections.

These polls have been conducted to gauge the perceptions of Jordanians on their priorities and concerns, democratic procedures, voter attitudes and electoral culture, political life and governance in general.

As these polls have been repeated at regular intervals over the past two years, crucial benchmarks and trends have been established in order to highlight important shifts and milestones in public opinion which can help decisions-makers in formulating public policies.



Summary of Findings

 Jordanians continue to focus on three national priorities which are economic in nature: Rising cost of living in first place, followed distantly by unemployment and poverty. However, most Jordanians think that things are going in the right direction in their country.

 Many Jordanians are concerned about their personal financial picture as they see their income being eaten up by the rising cost of living, but they are generally optimistic about the future and hopeful that their economic circumstances will improve.

 A majority of Jordanians think that the 'one-person one-vote' electoral system is the most appropriate for their country, while support for other options like the national proportional list system and the mixed party-electoral list/district system has been declining.

 The likelihood that voters will choose a ‘Jordanian nationalist’ candidate has increased, while the likelihood to vote for a 'Political Islamist' candidate has continued to decline. This is coupled with a rising trend to vote for 'independent' candidates rather than political party candidates, including those of the Islamic Action Front (IAF).

 Tribal/family allegiances remain the most important consideration for Jordanians in choosing their candidate for municipal office. However, in choosing their parliamentary candidate, voters consider that being a 'good service provider' is the most important consideration. The provision of personal services and favors is increasingly seen by voters as the main function of parliamentarians, whereas his/her position on policies and issues seems to matter little at all.

 There is low public awareness of the efforts to form a new national-centrist party. The poll results also show a substantial decline within the past five months in the likelihood to vote for this party if formed.

 The national poll’s results on issues connected to the recent municipal elections are consistent with the results from the exit poll conducted on municipal Election Day. This correlation is particularly clear where voters’ reasons for choosing a particular municipal candidate are concerned. Religiosity and political party affiliation, typically IAF indicators, are even weaker considerations in this poll than in the exit poll.

 The results of this poll are almost identical to the results of the municipal exit poll where municipal priorities and gender issues are concerned. The national poll results confirm that few women and men voted for women candidates.

 Jordanians are split on whether the Prime Minister and the Council of Ministers should come from within or from outside Parliament. This could be an indication of a lack of public trust in the institution.


To read the full report please follow the link or download the related file.