The election results are important, though, for several reasons, both provincial and cosmic. This was a play within a play within a play within a play, with four distinct levels of symbolism at stake. First was the balance of power among Lebanese Christian leaders in the traditional Maronite mountain heartland; second, the balance of power between the Fouad Siniora government and the Hizbullah-led opposition, both sides of which are stuck in a devastating stalemate that has crippled the government and threatened to suffocate the economy; third, the relative strengths of Syria's friends and opponents in Lebanon and the Middle East, given the continued tensions defining Syria's lingering posture in Lebanon and the intense resistance to it by many Lebanese; and fourth, the state of Arab popular support on both sides of the American- and Iranian-led ideological contest that defines much of the Middle East today.

We did not learn very much new from the election on any of these counts. But it is possible that the election results, in the context of the three other political battles going on, may herald a historic new phase of Lebanese political history that has implications for the rest of the region in terms of the linkage between religion and politics. It is possible that Lebanon's Maronite Christians, whose distinct status and critical mass in the mostly Muslim Arab world gave rise to the religion-based system of confessional politics in Lebanon starting in the late 19th century, may lead the way in the deconfessionalization of the same Lebanese system.

The Metn by-election was held to fill the seat of assassinated former Industry and Trade Minister Pierre Gemayel, who hailed from a family representing in Lebanese Christian terms what a Rockefeller represents in American capitalist terms: a bedrock of identity and power. Gemayel's father, former President Amin Gemayel, ran for the seat but lost narrowly to an unknown, Camille Khoury, who was a surrogate for the Christian leader and thorn in the government side, Michel Aoun.

In this contest to gauge the relative balance of power among Lebanon's Maronite leaders, both sides won and lost simultaneously. Aoun won in that his proxy candidate Khoury took the parliamentary seat, and he crafted a thin majority of voters from Christian and Muslim communities; but he lost because he took a much smaller share of the Maronite vote than the 60-70 percent he had expected. Gemayel lost because he did not win the contested seat, but he won because he took a majority of Maronite Christian votes and slashed Aoun's support in that community.

Some people would argue that all this is as significant as election results for the pharmacists' syndicate in Marseilles. At one level, that may be so. But these results carry very real consequences because the Christians of Lebanon are now severely polarized politically and their behavior will impact on the three other concentric ideological battles under way in Lebanon, the Middle East, and globally.

It is too early to gauge the precise consequences of the split among Christians, especially Maronites. Aoun and Gemayel both represent solid electoral communities, and both are allied to opposing camps in the government-Hizbullah face-off. While the Sunnis, Shiites and Druze tend to enjoy a more united national leadership and representation, the Christians do not. Their leadership has often been divided, a situation exacerbated more recently under cumulative and heavy pressures exerted during the years of Syrian domination and manipulation, but also because of Israeli interference and other domestic Lebanese factors. The Christians' main symbol of power is the president, but the current holder of the office, Emile Lahoud, is isolated and widely discredited because he is seen as a Syrian surrogate.

Aoun's return from exile in 2005 and his alliance with Hizbullah sparked the major intra-Christian fissure that was again confirmed by the by-election on Sunday. Each of the two main Christian camps has had to form strong alliances with leading Muslim parties in order to preserve their clout and relevance. Aoun and Suleiman Franjieh have joined with the Shiite Hizbullah, while Gemayel and Samir Geagea are allied with the Hariri-led Sunnis. It is too early to call whether this is an early sign of the organic deconfessionalization of the Lebanese political system. But developments are well worth watching on this front.