Turkey faces increased tension in the country's eastern and southeastern provinces, ahead of the local elections scheduled for next spring. Over the last couple of weeks, hundreds of Kurds staged violent protests in major cities as Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited the region. Militants also carried out minor attacks on regional branches of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), using percussion bombs.

Driving the upheaval is a fierce competition for influence between the AKP and the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP).

In the last early parliamentary elections in July 2007, the AKP succeeded in winning the support of Turkey's Kurds, polling well ahead of the DTP and showing a considerable increase in strength. According to party statistics, Erdogan's party received 56% of the vote in mainly Kurdish-populated eastern cities, and 51.76% in southeastern ones.

By contrast, in the November 2002 election, the AKP only managed 33% and 26% respectively.

The DTP was not well-prepared for the July 2007 vote. It garnered 17% in eastern cities and 25% in southeastern ones. The party currently has 21 lawmakers in parliament. At the same time, around 70 of the AKP's 338 deputies are of Kurdish origin.

Political analysts say the DTP, which has yet to distance itself from jailed terrorist leader Abdullah Ocalan, is determined to triumph in the coming local elections and guarantee itself a continued say in politics and Kurdish issues. Critics accuse the party of deliberately fomenting violence as a means to rally its base, even as it risks generating a backlash from Turkish nationalists.

The DTP is playing a dangerous game, says Suat Kiniklioglu, an AKP lawmaker and spokesman for parliament's foreign affairs committee.

"It appears that they are genuinely concerned that the AKP can actually take the major municipalities in the region …which would of course mean a great loss of prestige and political weakness for DTP," Kiniklioglu told SETimes. "They appear to be willing to raise the level of violence and polarization in order to pull away and draw more support for themselves. It is quite unfortunate that such methods are still employed in politics."

AKP and DTP offer stark contrasts

Many observers see the March 29th local elections as a bellwether for how the Kurdish issue is likely to progress in the future. Voters will be choosing between a party that advocates radical changes to the Turkish state -- including a new constitution that would recognise Kurdish autonomy -- and Erdogan's AKP, which promises to broaden Kurdish rights without damaging Turkey's unitary political system.

The AKP is committed to reform, Kiniklioglu says, but needs a stronger mandate from the people and an improved political climate. "The best way out of the impasse on these issues is, in my opinion, Turkey's drive towards EU membership. Most of our Kurdish citizens supported us because we are the most pro-EU party in Turkey. And they understand as well that many of their issues and concerns can be addressed in an EU framework."

"Some of these complicated issues need to be addressed in a proactive and courageous manner," the lawmaker said. "But circumstances and political climate, external environment, and also most importantly the security situation in the region itself sometimes has a great influence on how policies are drafted. We cannot underestimate the negative impact PKK terrorism and the level of violence continue to have on the daily lives of our citizens."

AKP’s ambitious plan

The AKP hopes to win 100 municipalities in Eastern and Southeastern Turkey -- particularly the major city of Diyarbakir, which is symbolically important. Such a triumph, it hopes. would isolate the PKK, weaken the radical demands of the DTP, and give Erdogan's party a stronger foundation on which to build its reforms.

Erdogan has long promised a new opening towards the Southeast. During a key visit to Diyarbakir in 2005, he promised to recognise "the Kurdish reality", and even suggested a new definition of citizenship. But renewed PKK violence in the following months stirred up outrage in Turkey and led to increased political pressure from nationalists. There has been no major step in the last two years in terms of a political opening towards Kurds.

The prime minister's rhetoric has toughened. "We have always been against ethnic and regional nationalism," he says. "We are all together in this country with all Turks, Kurds, Circassians, Georgians, Abkhazians and Bosnians. No ethnic group should deem itself superior to another. We have a higher identity: citizenship in the Republic of Turkey. We are for one nation, one flag, one motherland and one state. Is there anyone against this? Can anyone say he is against 'one nation'? If they don't like this, they may go anywhere they like. This is what I say."

Erdogan gives priority to investments?

With the political opening sidelined for the time being, the AKP now bases its appeal to Kurds on economics, promising new funds from the government and investments in the region. The southeast, after all, is one of the country's most underdeveloped regions, and has high unemployment levels. Polls show that voters care most about basic infrastructure investments such as hospitals and schools, as well as new job opportunities.

The government has already finalized plans for a $12 billion investment package for the southeast. The southeast has never seen real investment except during the years of AKP government, Erdogan declares, and they can expect more if they continue to back the ruling party.

"As long as we preserve our unity, we will continue to provide the region with better services. Despite terrorism, we will make sure that our cities prosper and the people become happy," Erdogan says.

Kiniklioglu, meanwhile, is optimistic about the prospects for finally resolving decades of conflict. "There is reason to be hopeful," he told SETimes. "Because in Turkey, our citizens, including our Kurdish citizens, understand that the way to move forward on these issues is not through violence. Most of our citizens continue to believe that a democratic solution to this process is what is needed."

This content was commissioned for SETimes.com